Wed 11/11/23 4:41 PM – Happy Thanksgiving

Sigh . . . another trading day, another down day and European troubles continue to worsen rapidly. I lightened up more on stocks today and have orders cued for Friday, Monday or a snap-back rally day. Traders are slowly selling everything except US treasuries right now, even gold.

Unless the ECB, IMF or Germany come up with some staggering announcement it looks like the rally off the 2009 lows is petering out and rolling over. See the 5 year view at The next support levels are 5% lower, then 12% lower. BTW, the EFSF, the facility that was supposedly the savior for European debt troubles is effectively dead. France is likely to lose its AAA rating and certainly would if it backed a good bit of the EFSF which would in itself kill the plan.

Today, even the German government saw rates rise today on extremely low demand for its auction of new debt. In fact, demand was only 61% of what was offered. Nearly always such auctions are well oversubscribed as the US Treasury auction was with demand triple what was offered. German bonds had been the European safe haven – perhaps not anymore. One cannot blame it much on weak demand due to a holiday week because only the US celebrates Thanksgiving. In Europe, it is just a normal business week except that now yields are going up sharply everywhere, even in the strongest countries.

That said, anyone in America has a lot to be thankful for tomorrow. One of my young grand-daughters just came in and ran to give me a big hug and an “I love you.” That puts things in proper perspective. Tomorrow we will have a feast with more family to put around the table than will fit. I am exceedingly proud of them all and can never seem to get through the prayer without choking up at all my blessings. I hope you have the same experience. If not, head down to help out at the homeless shelter or your favorite charity.

I do my best to diligently help my clients with their resources but love and gratitude are worth far, far more than money. Happy Thanksgiving.